NBA Spread Betting Explained — How Point Spreads Work

The point spread is the most popular NBA betting market. Once you understand it, you'll wonder why you ever just bet on the winner.

What is a point spread?

When two NBA teams play, one is usually better than the other. If you just bet on the winner — the moneyline — the favourite will often be priced at very short odds, meaning you risk a lot to win a little.

The point spread solves this by giving the underdog a head start.

Say Boston are playing Philadelphia. Boston are heavy favourites. The bookmaker sets a spread of Boston -8.5. This means:

If you back Boston -8.5, they need to win by 9 or more points for your bet to win. They need to "cover the spread."

If you back Philadelphia +8.5, they need to either win the game outright or lose by 8 or fewer points. They need to "cover" too — just from the other side.

Both sides of the spread are priced at around 1.91 in decimal odds — roughly evens after the bookmaker's margin. This is what makes it attractive. Instead of taking Boston at 1.20 on the moneyline, you can take them -8.5 at 1.91 and get nearly double the return if they win convincingly.

How to read a spread

You'll see NBA spreads displayed like this:

• Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 (-110)

• Boston Celtics -8.5 (-110)

The number is the spread. The negative team is the favourite — they give points. The positive team is the underdog — they receive points.

In decimal odds the -110 translates to roughly 1.91. Some bookmakers display it differently but the concept is the same.

What is a push?

If the spread is set at a whole number — say Boston -8 — and they win by exactly 8, neither side wins. This is called a push and your stake is returned. Bookmakers often use half points (8.5, 6.5, 4.5) specifically to avoid pushes.

How does a projection model use the spread?

The HMJOROTips NBA model projects the final score for each game using team offensive and defensive ratings. If the model projects Boston to win by 11 points and the bookmaker has the spread at -8.5, that's a signal — the model thinks Boston will cover and there may be value in backing them.

The key number is whether the projected margin crosses the bookmaker's spread line. If your projection is on the same side as the bookmaker's line but by a larger margin, that's where the edge lies.

Spread vs moneyline — which is better?

For heavy favourites, the spread is almost always better value than the moneyline. Taking Boston at -8.5 for 1.91 is far more attractive than taking them on the moneyline at 1.25.

For close games where both teams are evenly matched, the moneyline can offer more value because the spread line will be tight and both sides will be priced similarly anyway.

The model flags value in both markets — the spread pick and the ML pick can differ for the same game depending on where the edge is.