Model Access
The full model.
Every match.
Surface-specific ELO ratings for ATP and WTA. Team projection models for NBA. Win probability, value %, handicap lines, correct scores, surface radar and court speed — for every match in the model.
Win probability waterfall
See exactly how the model builds its probability — base rate → overall ELO → surface ELO → final number. Every step explained.
Value % and edge detection
Edge % calculated for every ML and handicap line. Bookie odds vs model fair odds — value flagged automatically so you never miss a bet.
Full handicap table
Cover probability and fair odds for every handicap line from -5.5 to +5.5. Bookie line highlighted. Edge % shown for every available market.
Correct score odds
Model probability and fair odds for every possible correct score — 2-0 and 2-1 for ATP/WTA, 3-0 through 3-2 for Grand Slams. Best score highlighted.
Surface ELO radar
Visual radar showing each player's hard, clay and grass ELO. Instantly see where the surface advantage lies and which player is better suited to the conditions.
Golden filter alerts
ATP R2+ ML 15%+ edge at 1.5–2.0. The model's highest performing filter — 71.4% win rate, +21.4% ROI. Every golden match flagged automatically.
How it works
Probability waterfall
The model doesn't just give you a number — it shows you why. Each step adds or subtracts from the base 50% probability based on ELO data.
Live example · Sinner vs Alcaraz · Roland Garros · Clay
BASE
50.0%
OVERALL ELO
+5.2%
CLAY ELO
+2.0%
FINAL PROB
57.2%
BASE — 50% — every match starts equal. The model then adjusts based on data, not opinion.
OVERALL ELO — Sinner's global ELO is higher than Alcaraz's, so the model shifts +5.2% in his favour before surface is considered.
CLAY ELO — on clay specifically, Sinner has an even bigger advantage. Another +2.0% based on clay-only match history.
FINAL PROB — 57.2% — the model's probability. Bookie has Sinner at 1.90, implying 52.6%. The 4.6% gap is the edge.
Value detection
Finding edge — ML and handicap
Edge % is the gap between what the model says should happen and what the bookie is offering. Positive edge means the odds are in your favour.
Match odds · Sinner vs Alcaraz
Jannik Sinner ML
1.90
Fair: 1.75
Edge: +8.6% ✓
Carlos Alcaraz ML
2.00
Fair: 2.34
Edge: -14.5%
Golden filter match ⚡
Sinner ML qualifies: ATP R2+ · odds 1.90 (in 1.5–2.0 range) · edge 8.6%+ · historical win rate on this filter: 71.4%
Handicap table · Sinner
| Line | Cover % | Fair | Bookie | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | 2.1% | 48.60 | — | — |
| -4.5 | 3.8% | 26.90 | — | — |
| -3.5 | 6.4% | 15.72 | — | — |
| -2.5 | 10.7% | 9.35 | — | — |
| -1.5 | 28.4% | 3.52 | 3.80 | +8.0% ✓ |
| -0.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.90 | +8.6% ⚡ |
| +0.5 | 42.8% | 2.34 | 2.00 | -14.5% |
| +1.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
Every bookie line is highlighted. Green = value. Amber ⚡ = golden filter. The model shows you where the edge is across every available market.
Correct scores
Every scoreline. Fair odds. Best pick highlighted.
The model calculates the probability of every possible scoreline. Fair odds are shown so you can compare directly against what the bookie is offering.
Correct scores · Best of 3 · ATP
| Result | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sinner 2-0 | 38.4% | 2.60 |
| Sinner 2-1 | 18.8% | 5.32 |
| Alcaraz 2-0 | 26.2% | 3.82 |
| Alcaraz 2-1 | 16.6% | 6.02 |
Best of 5 (Grand Slams) includes 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2 for both players. Best scoreline highlighted in green.
Fair odds vs bookie odds — if the model says Sinner 2-0 is worth 2.60 and the bookie has it at 3.00, that's a 15%+ edge on a correct score market.
Best scoreline highlighted — the most likely outcome is always shown in green so you can spot the best CS bet at a glance.
Grand Slam format — for Roland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open, all 6 best-of-5 outcomes are calculated separately. QF, SF and Final all handled.
Use alongside ML — if the model likes Sinner ML at 57% and also shows 2-0 as the most likely scoreline, that's a strong double signal.
Surface data
ELO radar and court speed
Surface ELO and court speed index together give you a complete picture of how the conditions affect each player's chances.
Surface ELO radar · Sinner vs Alcaraz
Sinner
H:2273 C:2242 G:2098
Alcaraz
H:2198 C:2212 G:2139
Alcaraz leads on grass (2139 vs 2098) — on a grass court this matchup looks very different. The radar makes it instantly visible.
Court speed · Roland Garros
Speed index
0.64
Slow
Court speed index — calculated per tournament from historical serve and rally data. 0.42 = slowest, 1.45 = fastest.
Slow courts (0.42–0.70) favour baseline players and clay specialists. Roland Garros 0.64, Rome 0.58.
Fast courts (1.15+) favour big servers and hard-court specialists. Wimbledon 1.22, Australian Open 1.08.
Ace % also shown — average ace rate for the tournament tells you how much serve dominance matters on that surface.
Tracked record — 2026
Tips Record
...
All Sports
Win Rate
...
All Sports
ROI
...
All Sports
Tips Tracked
...
2026
Pricing
Full model data. Every match.
Launching September 2026 with a free trial month to celebrate the US Open. Follow on Telegram to be notified when we go live.
🎾 Tennis ATP
Model Access ATP
£7.99
per month · cancel anytime
🎁 First month free at launch
Win probability waterfall
Value % and best bet every match
Full handicap table with edge %
Correct score odds
Surface ELO radar
Court speed index
Golden filter alerts ⚡
🎾 Tennis Pro
ATP + WTA Pro
£10.99
per month · cancel anytime
🎁 First month free at launch
Everything in ATP
Full WTA coverage
WTA surface ELO radar
WTA handicap and value data
WTA correct scores
Priority Telegram access
Golden filter alerts ⚡
🏀 NBA
NBA Model
£3.99
per month · cancel anytime
🎁 First month free at launch
Full NBA model data
ML value detection
Spread cover probabilities
Over/under projections
Projected scores every game
Home court advantage data
Playoffs model active
BEST VALUE
🎾🏀 All Access
Everything + VIP
£16.99
was £22.97
per month · cancel anytime
🎁 First month free at launch
Full ATP + WTA model
Full NBA model
VIP tips channel
Early access to picks
All golden filter alerts ⚡
Priority support
Save £6 vs buying separately
Follow @hmjorotips · Free picks on Telegram